The Electoral Calculus of Iraq
: The economy does continue to be an advantage for the president.
But Iraq -- and the myriad of assumptions, policies and repercussions it
represents -- is what this election is all about. I take it as a given
that virtually no Gore voters from 2000 will pull the lever for Bush. But
how many lightly-committed Bush voters from 2000 will hold him to account
if they believe he gambled big and gambled unwisely with America's honor
and safety, and came up short? I think more than a few. And since there
were more Gore voters than Bush voters last time anyway, well ...